Why URBEK special tabs? The generally available data for households by age and income breakout information for age 65 to 74 and 75 and over. The URBEK special tabs refines this data by detailing results for extended families and intergenerational households. In addition, the URBEK data breakout householders aged 85 and over.

The first residents of a seniors housing development, let’s call them the “Founders”, may reveal unique characteristics of the building itself. Typically, initial rents for a new building would be based on rents per square foot of similar buildings in the market and cost. But “Founders” have a first choice of units and may reveal preferences as to particular units within the building. These choices or preferences become lost as the development fills and trends toward sustaining occupancy. Capturing initial data on the preferences revealed by Founders may provide a guide to setting prices as various units turn over in subsequent years.

What is the difference between an URBEK housing market analysis and any other market analysis or appraisal? The short answer is that the URBEK framework builds on the HUD-FHA Techniques of Housing Market Analysis. For a primary market area, the HUD-FHA Techniques asks “Where are we today?” And, “What will it take bring the market into balance over the next three-years?”.

Why 1987? Because in 1987 the Federal government stopped funding intermediate care facilities. Who were the residents and what did the physical structures look like? Typically, these residents required personal care: mostly a mixture of frail (3+ ADL’s) and/or cognitively impaired seniors age 75 and over.

The starting point for making realistic assisted living demand estimates is to begin with the right question “Why to?” not “Where from?”  First, frail seniors (age 75 and over) aggregate in the vicinity of the adult children (age 45 to 64). But the adult children, typically, are still working. So the overall market area for assisted living is best defined as the labor market area. This initial starting point has several advantages.